How to spot a market maker on Polymarket — and why not to copy one
Some of the most profitable wallets on Polymarket are market makers: they quote both sides, trade thousands of times a day and have no view on who wins. Their records are real, but they are not a signal to follow.
What a market maker does
A market maker keeps buy and sell orders on the book, often on both outcomes of the same market, and earns the spread between them plus any rebates. It wants to end each market close to flat, not to be right about it. Its profit is the sum of many small edges, earned by being filled.
Sign 1: mostly maker, by value
PMWallets labels each entity by the share of its traded value on the maker side. A maker is at 80% or more. The share is by money, not by fill count, so it is not inflated by a resting order being filled in many small pieces.
Sign 2: both sides of the same market
The two-sided market maker tag marks entities that are mostly maker and that posted on both outcomes in a large share of the markets they quoted in. Holding YES and NO at once is not a directional bet; it is inventory.
Sign 3: pace and size
Market makers trade very often, in many markets, with small median fills and an even spread of sizes. The entity page shows fills per day, median fill and how uneven the sizing is; a trader with occasional outsized bets is usually taking a view, one with thousands of similar fills is usually quoting.
Why their records are not a signal
A maker's fill happens when someone else decides to trade against its quote — often because the price is about to move. Copying that fill means buying what an informed trader just chose to sell you. The profit came from quoting and inventory management, which a follower does not reproduce. Use makers' records to understand a market's liquidity; follow takers for calls.
Questions
How do I know if a Polymarket wallet is a market maker?
Look for most of its traded value on the maker side, positions on both outcomes of the same markets, and very many small, evenly sized fills across many markets. PMWallets shows style by value and tags two-sided market makers.
Do market makers make money on Polymarket?
Many do — from the spread and rebates — and some of the most profitable wallets are makers. The profit comes from providing liquidity, not from predicting outcomes.
Should I copy a profitable market maker?
Generally no. Copying a maker's fills by taking liquidity reverses its edge: you pay the spread it earned, often just before the price moves.