Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory · Politics · Resolved

In the 30-day window ending 2026-10-30, 801 traders traded or held this market, buying $699.9k and selling $350.1k across 12,435 fills.

The market has resolved. On their results for the window, 588 traders came out ahead on it and 185 behind.

Traders801

Bought$699,862

Sold$350,135

Fills12,435

Window: 2026-10-30 · 30d · Aggregates only: PMWallets does not list individual traders per market.

Traders with strong records

30 traders with strong records traded this market: 25 came out ahead and 5 behind. Only the counts are published — a sum over a group can be one member's exact figure.

"Traders with strong records" means, over the same 30-day window: at least 20 markets won or lost, a win-rate lower bound (95% interval) of at least 55%, and a profit that survives removing their best market. Their figures are not shown when fewer than 5 of them traded a market.

View this market on Polymarket ↗Category board →How to read a trader's record →