Busiest Polymarket geopolitics markets
The Polymarket geopolitics markets with the most buying in the last 30 days, each with how many traders came out ahead and how the traders with strong records did. Aggregates only.
Window: 2026-10-02 · 30d · "Traders with strong records" means, over the same 30-day window: at least 20 markets won or lost, a win-rate lower bound (95% interval) of at least 55%, and a profit that survives removing their best market. Their figures are not shown when fewer than 5 of them traded a market.
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · 1,821 traders · $1.9M
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · 3,044 traders · $1.6M
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · 1,564 traders · $1.5M
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? · 1,182 traders · $740k
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? · 1,772 traders · $704k
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · 756 traders · $663k
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · 2,560 traders · $647k
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · 577 traders · $582k
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? · 775 traders · $513k
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? · 1,766 traders · $502k
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? · 977 traders · $487k
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? · 462 traders · $478k