US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) · Geopolitics · Resolved

In the 30-day window ending 2026-10-02, 3,044 traders traded or held this market, buying $1.59M and selling $1.01M across 26,669 fills.

The market has resolved. On their results for the window, 1,387 traders came out ahead on it and 1,608 behind.

Traders3,044

Bought$1,588,456

Sold$1,008,369

Fills26,669

Window: 2026-10-02 · 30d · Aggregates only: PMWallets does not list individual traders per market.

Traders with strong records

69 traders with strong records traded this market: 40 came out ahead and 28 behind. Only the counts are published — a sum over a group can be one member's exact figure.

"Traders with strong records" means, over the same 30-day window: at least 20 markets won or lost, a win-rate lower bound (95% interval) of at least 55%, and a profit that survives removing their best market. Their figures are not shown when fewer than 5 of them traded a market.

View this market on Polymarket ↗Category board →How to read a trader's record →